Plot checks for EUDR: area, forest loss and cropland

You send polygons. We return, for each one, the area computed from the geometry itself, whether tree cover has been lost on it since the EUDR cut-off of 31 December 2020, and what the cropland baseline says about it. The limits of each answer are printed alongside.

Priceon request
Unitper plot
WhereKenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda

The deliverable

Geometry first, because it is the part that is exact

Area, centroid and county come out of your own polygon on an equal-area projection. There is no sampling and no model in that step. So it is the one figure in the whole service that carries no caveat. It is also the figure that most often disagrees with the customer’s own records. That disagreement is usually where a study starts earning its fee.

Forest loss, and the floor underneath it

For each plot we report whether tree cover has been lost since the EUDR cut-off date of 31 December 2020, and in which year. The product behind it is public, annual, and pinned to a specific version in the output. A buyer can re-run the same question years later and get the same answer.

The floor matters more than the verdict. A single isolated pixel is the dominant false-positive mode of any annual forest-change product. A detection has to be supported by more than one pixel, which puts our stated floor at 0.5 hectares. Anything smaller is flagged as marginal rather than reported as loss. Every verdict is printed with that floor attached. “No loss detected” is evidence of absence only down to the smallest thing the instrument can see.

What a detection does not tell you

It does not tell you what was cut. Every public forest-change product answers the question “did tree cover disappear here”. A farmer clearing a woodlot they planted, a cooperative replanting coffee, and somebody taking down primary forest all produce the same signal. So every detection we return says cause-unverified, and the next step is a visit, never a stronger claim. This is the part of EUDR screening that nobody can currently sell. We would rather say so than let a buyer discover it during an audit.

Cropland, with its dates

The cropland baseline tells you what the ground looked like in 2019 and 2020. It cannot tell you what happened in 2021 or since. It does not recognise perennial crops, so a mature coffee or tea plot will read as not cropland. Both limitations are printed with the answer. Used correctly, the baseline is a way of asking whether a plot was already under cultivation before the cut-off. That is one of the questions EUDR poses.

Minimum plot size

A 10 metre pixel covers 100 square metres. Strip one pixel of contamination along each edge, as you must, and a very small field has almost nothing left in the middle. We set a minimum plot size when scoping and price against it. We would rather do that than return a figure for a 0.25-hectare plot that is mostly hedge.

Limits of the evidence

  • No cause for any loss detected. A coffee replanting, a woodlot harvest and the clearing of real forest look identical to every public forest-change product, so each detection is reported as cause-unverified and settled by a visit.
  • The cropland baseline covers 2019 and 2020 only, so it cannot answer whether a plot has been cropland continuously. It also excludes perennials, which means tea and coffee read as not cropland.
  • Below roughly 0.5 hectares the per-field figure is mostly field edge. We set a minimum plot size and say so when we quote, instead of returning a number that is noise.

Work still in development

None of this is available yet, and none of it is quoted until it has run on a real study.

Forest against tree crop
Separating a coffee replanting or a eucalyptus harvest from the clearing of real forest. No public forest-change product distinguishes them. We hold a trained classifier for perennial crops and are wiring it in; until that is done, every detection carries cause-unverified and a test in the code asserts that no causal verdict can be emitted by accident.
Radar alerts as a second opinion
Near-real-time radar detections see through cloud and catch smaller clearings than the annual product. The module is written and dormant. These alerts exist only inside primary humid forest, so over ordinary farmland they add nothing, and a radar zero must never be read as a clean result.

Scoping and quote

We need the polygons, or the plot count and the region if you are still collecting them, and the smallest plot you are prepared to have reported. Tell us who the verdict is for, since an EUDR file and a lender's due diligence put different checks first.

Email info@nuasense.com WhatsApp +254 707 523 321